Analysis: Major Bitcoin indicator starting to signal potential bull run?

Gossip by Blockspectator  | 1 year ago
2 min read

The cryptocurrency industry seems to be engulfed in a black hole of a bear market; the defining characteristic between them both being that the bad times never seem to finish.

It has been several months now where price action of cryptocurrencies and specifically Bitcoin has been ranging within a $400 spectrum. Despite touching $4000 a few times, that elusive sustained break beyond it has still yet to materialize, much to the frustration of the crypto community.

One of the more positive news to have been released today is that of the analysis by The Crypto Lark.

In his video he has noted that Bitcoin transactions are at record levels; approximately 350K daily transactions.   

However, why is this significant? The reason being current levels of Bitcoin transactions are now comparable to the transactions recorded during the period when Bitcoin reached its all-time high late-2017 to early 2018.

While it may be depressing that despite the comparable levels of daily transactions, current prices are over 80% lower than the peak bull run, it’s significant to note that the fees for Bitcoin transactions presently are nowhere near the levels witnessed back then.

This is hugely important as, during the peak bull run, it was common to be paying fees of $60/$50/$40 regularly- however, now fees are averaging 10 cents. That’s a massive 99% decrease between the peak prices than to now. 

The Crypto Lark explains why Bitcoin transactions prices were so high back then. There weren’t a more significant number of people using the currency then; instead, the reason being for such sky-high costs was that the Bitcoin mempool was overloaded with unconfirmed transactions.

The mempool has thousands of small unconfirmed transactions which clogged the network and sent fees rising. However, now as the mempool is clear from such small inconvenient transactions, the network can process the transactions at a fraction of the cost.

So while the usage is there among Bitcoin transactions, the bear prices persist, with many analysts expecting even lower prices. However, the expectation also with this kind of usage s that prices will not stay at current levels for much longer, not with this number of transactions.

The Crypto Lark concluded that with currency market fundamentals and action it is highly unlikely Bitcoin will drop to $1000, rather price action will return to being bullish, not counting any black swan events.

Source